DESPITE CHEESE FACTOR, FLIMSY NINERS COMING TO AN
END
We've all seen it many times over the years: the Niners get
into a tough game against a mediocre opponent and, through some
fortuitous combination of erroneous officiating, lucky breaks
and bounces, their opponent's stupidity, or all of the above,
San Francisco manages to cheese out a last-minute victory. Throw
last weekend's Saints game on the pile with the rest. Three penalties,
a replay reversal, and a bad Billy Joe Hobert pass down the stretch
sealed the win for the Niners after New Orleans had spent much
of the first 56 minutes of the game whooping ass on the merlot
and cheddar. All in all, it was a by-the-book win.
So are we in for another season of the Niner cheese leading
them to the Promised Land of a division title and a home-field
playoff game? Hardly. This year, folks, is going to be different.
This year, the Saints game notwithstanding, those breaks won't
all go in the direction of the "Bay Area."
What is different? you might be asking. What has changed from,
say, last year, when the 49ers cheesed out two wins over Carolina,
or 1997, when for five consecutive weeks, the Niners caught a
break from the officials that significantly impacted the outcome
of the game? Simply this: in those years, the 49ers had a significant
amount of talent, talent to keep them in almost every game, at
which point the cheese factor would swing the close ones in their
direction most of the time.
This year, most of that talent is gone. An off-season of salary-cap
purging and stocking the new Browns with personnel has left the
team decimated at most positions. San Francisco is subpar at
several positions, and that's at starter -- the backups are even
worse. Their cornerbacks are tiny and can't really cover, their
pass rush is inadequate, their offensive line is a collander,
and the running game is an afterthought.
Therein lies the biggest difference between previous years
and the current campaign. The Saints game was a glaring sign
of what the Niners will have to face almost every week -- a constant
battle and a scoreboard that shows, more often than not, that
the other team is ahead. In the past, the Niners would intersperse
blowout wins with those of the cheesy variety. Most likely, that
won't be the case this season. Every week will be a test for
this mediocre team and though the breaks will likely go their
way often, as usual, they simply won't be able to cheese out
a win like Sunday's with any regularity -- or at least enough
to maintain a record that gives the impression that they are
an elite team.
And those are just the close ones. If New Orleans, as weak
as it is on offense, walked in to 3Com and moved the ball with
relative ease, just think of what the Packers and Redskins and
Vikings are going to do. While the Niners are usually good for
maybe one blowout loss per year, they've already been killed
this year, and there are still 14 games left to go. One or more
cakewalk wins -- in addition to the Jaguars game -- for Niner
opponents is certainly not out of the question, given the remaining
schedule.
Therefore, given the fact that they probably stand to lose
at least one more game by a wide margin, and that most of the
rest of the games will be tight contests which will go either
way, Niner haters don't have much to worry about. Gone are the
days when the Niners would romp over half their opponents and
cheese over most of the other half.
Are we saying that they won't win at least 10 games and make
the playoffs? No, we could never be that bold. The Niner cheese
factor is probably too pervasive, even given their weak talent.
What we ARE saying is this: don't expect 12 wins, don't expect
anything other than a wild card, and don't expect to see the
team anywhere near the NFC Championship Game (and probably not
even a divisional playoff, at that). Even the cheese factor can't
overcome the serious deficiencies on this squad.
However, should a few opponents step up, and should the breaks
actually even out for once in a blue moon, Niner haters may get
what they've been waiting oh-so-patiently for: an 8-8 record
or worse, no playoff appearance, and a final and total end to
the years of "Best Ever" blather about this overrated
band of lucky stiffs. |
PROLIFERATION OF WEST COAST OFFENSE MEANS GIMMICK
IS GONE
The 49ers look old, slow and downright terrible. Jacksonville
took them apart and the Saints manhandled them until divine intervention
from the zebras saved their asses. It is virtually impossible
to believe that officiating will keep them in every game this
year (although with the 49ers, you never know), so all signs
point to a dismal year for the cranberry-and-butterscotch.
However, if the 49ers finally struggle this year it won't
be because of a lack of talent. It will be because of the spread
of the West Coast Offense (WCO).
Certainly there is a dearth of talent on the 49ers, but talent
has never been the major reason the 49ers have won. All along
it has been the combination of the WCO, easy division/schedule
and generous officiating mostly accounting for their run of success,
while talent has been a very small factor. This is why so many
people become 49er-Haters: they can't stand a pretender, a team
that wins without earning it.
Here's how factors other than talent have affected the 49ers
in the past:
NFC WEST/SCHEDULE: The 49ers have always had the advantage
of an easy schedule. Obviously the NFC West has been a joke the
last six years, but we're talking even before that during the
rare years when the NFC West was decent. Since 1981 the 49ers
have averaged playing 10 teams with losing records per year.
Remember, the old schedule was formulated for the 49ers to play
4 games out of 16 (25%) against last place teams: two games against
the last place team in the NFC West, and to make up for the division
only having four teams, one game against the last place teams
from the NFC Central and NFC East.
OFFICIATING: Every football fan worth his grain of salt is
fully aware that the 49ers have received the most breaks perhaps
in NFL history. Conversely, you can count the unfair calls going
against the 49ers in the last twenty years on one hand (but heaven
forbid when it happens because it's the end of the world - we
still laughingly get emails from 49er fans frothing over Don
Beebe). We've proven the referee bias at this web site: quick
glance at our past game reviews reveals a healthy 33% or more
of 49er games involving some indisputable bogus incident in their
favor.
WEST COAST OFFENSE: Imagine you were a defensive coordinator
in the NFC in the '80's and early '90's. You had to build a defense
to try to stop Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders,
Emmitt Smith and Bill Parcels-type ball control offenses. You
had to load the box with eight guys and play a three-deep zone
to prevent any big plays. Then, after weeks of smash-mouth football,
the 49ers would appear next on your schedule doing something
completely different - the WCO and its dink passes underneath.
Sure, you could throw in nickels and dimes, but the bottom line
is that the standard 4-3 defense with its zone variations is
no match for the WCO because those pass defenses are designed
to give up the very thing the WCO wants to take: the short pass.
These old defensive schemes give a free pass to the WCO's base
plays, such as the dump-off to the tailback. Therefore, even
if that defense had players with superior talent - as was often
the case -- the odds were it would fail and the 49ers would win
because the battle was already lost on paper.
But what was a coordinator to do? Shift his entire defensive
philosophy and scheme to battle the WCO once a year when the
49ers came to town? No, they had to continue to prepare for the
majority - the smash-mouth game - and let the 49ers get away
with doing their little cheesy long-handoff thing. So team after
team, year after year would play the same old soft zone and lose,
despite the obvious successes of guys like Fritz Shurmur who
would change things up and neutralize the WCO.
The result is that while the talent level has varied over
the years, whether Joe Montana, Jeff Kemp or Steve Bono was quarterbacking,
the 49ers continued to win just about the same amount every year,
give or take a win or two because the gimmick of the WCO masked
their true lack of talent. Again, this is exactly why so many
people are 49er-haters: the WCO and other factors allowed players
to succeed more than their talent should have let them. If you
took the 1988 Buccaneers, traded uniforms, let the Bucs run the
WCO and gave them the easy schedule and favorable calls, you
better damn well believe they would have made the playoffs if
not the Super Bowl.
So what does all this mean for this year? Yes, the 49ers looked
like crap the first two weeks, but it is wrong to attribute their
demise to eroding talent. The key reason the 49ers have struggled
is because both opponents engaged defensive schemes designed
to stop the WCO. Instead of sitting back softly, the Jags and
Saints challenged every short pass and made the 49ers offense
look anemic.
1999 may be the year the tables have finally turned on the
49ers. Their offense is no longer the exception that defensive
coordinators try to stop by slapping together some amendments
onto their overmatched schemes in the few days the week before
gametime. The WCO is now the prevailing offensive scheme in football.
Most defenses are now built on speed, geared to stop the short
passing game first and the opponent's rushing attack just secondarily.
In short, as the team vanishes faster than a 49er fan in the
fourth quarter, don't overplay the talent factor. Yes, the 49ers
are obviously one of the least talented teams in the NFL, but
the talent factor for the 49ers has always been overrated. The
WCO always provided an uneven playing field hiding the 49ers'
true talent level. What we're actually seeing now is the field
being leveled, the evolution of NFL defenses finally catching
up with the WCO in direct response to its proliferation throughout
the league. The ugly truth about their talent is finally being
revealed.
What is truly satisfying is the realization that the 49ers
themselves will be their ultimate executioner. Bill Walsh's ego
has pushed many 49er assistants into coaching positions and the
49ers have patted themselves on their backs praising their "best
ever" system of ugly football that has watered down the
game. They used to be exception to the rule. Now that they are
no longer the exception, they are going to find a new rule. |
