2004 49ers Schedule

A far cry from good old days

April 19, 2004 (NHS) -- The NFL schedule is out and it's time for the NHS's annual bitching about how the 49ers' schedule is an affront to everything decent.

Or maybe not?

That's right -- despite the Bandwagon's belief to the contrary, the NHS isn't about baseless Niner-bashing, it's about truth. And the truth is that for the first time anyone can remember, the 49ers' schedule actually isn't a complete joke. Their schedule can't be classified as "tough" -- heaven forbid that would ever happen! -- but it isn't the yearly attempt to top itself as the easiest schedule in NFL history.

This, in itself, is a pleasant shock for Niner-haters to see. Overall, it's a schedule of average difficulty, with some advantages and disadvantages -- which no doubt has the Bandwagon in tears.

Perhaps all this talk about a "new regime" is for real?

Anyway, let's break it down, remembering that when critiquing an NFL schedule, you look at the objective and subjective parts: (1) who a given team plays and where; and (2) the ordering of these games and when the bye-week occurs.

Part 1: the objective side

Part 1 is objective because it contains no "fudge factor". All teams are matched up by the same scheduling formula that dictates opponents and home/away locations. That formula is applied equally to every team and is supposed to ensure that the worst teams end up with the easiest schedules.

However, even though it's mechanical in application, the NFL's scheduling formula often leads to unfair results due to (a) the division in which a team plays and (b) luck of the rotation.

Thus, year after year, in an area supposedly mathematical and fair, the 49ers instead have enjoyed some of the easiest schedules in terms of opponents' winning percentage and the number of winning teams they are scheduled to face. Especially insulting has been that these easy schedules have happened even in years after the 49ers finished in "best ever first place" in their division, thus operating to keep the 49ers artificially at the top.

Much of the reason for this injustice over the years has been thanks to the cozy NFC Worst, especially those years when no other team in the division finished above .500. But there's also been a huge degree of sheer luck at the way the round-robin formula has played out for the Niners. For example, last year the formula spit out that 3 of the 5 winning teams on the 49ers' schedule were at home, for no real reason other than just 49er luck in how the formula worked out for their benefit.

Turning to the 2004 schedule, part 1 is decidedly neutral for the 49ers. Their overall winning percentage of opponents is a healthy .512, which ranks in the top 13. Also, in a pleasant surprise, like most other teams in the NFL the 49ers face seven winning teams on their schedule (as opposed to those infamous years when they have, say, four or five). However, four of the seven games against winning teams are at home and one of the away games -- at New England -- is scheduled as the last game of the year so might be meaningless.

Still, in what is a huge shock to 49er-haters everywhere and of course sure to be considered blasphemy by the Bandwagon, the luck of the schedule formula and playing in the NFC Worst finally did not bless the 49ers this year.

Part 2: the subjective "fudge factor"

We mention the phrase "fudge factor" because the order of the games and bye week, from weeks 1 to 17, are not set by mathematical formula. The NFL schedules the order by hand -- taking requests from teams, working around stadium conflicts, etc.

Rest assured, the scheduling of the order of the games is not done in a vacuum. The NFL sits down with a clear idea of who they think will be the best teams and who will suck, and they team up with ESPN, FOX, CBS, and ABC to figure out the best matchups to give to the primetime spots to the teams they want to promote to best sell their product.

In the past, this has been where the real pro-49er bias of the NFL has shined brightly. It's no secret that the 49ers are a preferred franchise of the NFL, so in promoting them, we've seen every possible blatant ploy by the NFL to give the 49ers every advantage possible when making up the schedule order.

So is this year different? Let's look at some of the Commandments of the NFL's past pro-49er fudging and how they play out in this schedule:

The 49er Front-Load.

Definition: The NFL puts several pansies in a row to start the season to try to ensure that the 49ers get off to a 5-1 or 6-0 start, thus hopefully (for them) setting the tone for the season.
Most disgusting recent example: Out of many years to choose from where the NFL packed the first half of the schedule with losers, 1997 may be the most disgusting example -- one winning team in first half of schedule, seven of eight first games against NFC Worst sheep.

Skinny in '04: A very shocking first few weeks for the 49ers. Only one losing team in the first four games, the opener at home against Atlanta (5-11). Certainly, some may cry foul that the 49ers get a losing opponent at home two years in a row (see last year's Bears game farce), but barring another injury, this game should be the start of the Michael Vick era for the Falcons. Even discounting the incompetence of their new coach/resident doofus Jim Mora, Jr., Vick's talent will have the 49ers nervous.

After the opener, the 49ers travel to New Orleans and Seattle, then get the Rams at home. In a fair and balanced world the 49ers should go 0-4 over this stretch. But of course we know the 49er Cheese Factor will allow the inferior Niners to steal a bogus win or two. If they do survive this opening stretch, the next few opponents are horrible: Arizona, the Jets, and Chicago. So keep an eye on how the 49ers do over the first quarter, since that will dictate their season.

Best case scenario for the 49ers (assuming all the turnover luck and pro-49er referee huddles of the past to cancel their lack of talent) would be 4-4 at the midpoint. Most likely is 3-5 or 2-6. A far cry from those years when there'd be just one winning team over the first half (which had a 90% chance of having a timely pass interference call go against them) gifting the 49ers an 8-0 start, 7-1 at worst.
The 49er Fluff-After-Tough Rule.

Definition: In the rare instance an elite team is on the 49ers schedule, the NFL makes sure that another good team isn't scheduled the following week, or at the very least makes sure that they're not both on the road (because it wouldn't be fair to the poor 49ers to make them play two hard games in a row and risk them losing momentum).
Most disgusting recent example: 1996 -- Super Bowl champ Cowboys followed by expansion Ravens.

Skinny in '04: As mentioned above, games 3 then 4 are against superior division rivals, Seattle and the Rams. Games 8 and 9 are Seattle and Carolina. Then there's another back-to-back of Miami and St. Louis. Sounds bad; however, you'll note that the Seahawks-Panthers back-to-back are both at home, and the others are home-away splits. Overall, no stretches of doom in the schedule.
Last Week Shall Be Meaningless.

Definition: Knowing that 9 times out of 10 the last week of the NFL schedule is meaningless (as most playoff scenarios have already played out by then and the better teams will be resting their starters for the playoffs), the NFL schedules one of the rare tough opponents as the last game. The result is that instead of a significant probable loss in the middle of the season, the 49ers just lose a meaningless game.
Most disgusting recent example: 2002 -- Division-best Rams (14-2 the previous year) scheduled last (and, of course, the game ended up a meaningless loss).

Skinny in '04: Their toughest game on the schedule, at the defending Super Bowl champion, New England, is stuck last. Most likely the Patriots will know if they're in or out of the playoffs by then, making what should have been an awful winter road game experience for the Bandwagon moot. There's even a possible chance for a positive as the 49ers might appear as nothing-to-lose spoilers.
The 49ers Shall Not Shiver.

Definition: The 49ers are a West Coast team in a West Division, thus have among the least opportunities for cold weather games to appear on their schedule. There's no bias there, it's just a fact of life. However, the NHS did a study of schedules since 1990 and found that in those opportunities where the 49ers could have played a cold weather game (when the formula had them traveling to a site outdoors in the snow), the NFL usually scheduled that game early (before week 10) so the 49ers could avoid the cold. In fact, the 49ers had the least percentage of snow games actually scheduled of any team in the NFL, significantly less than many other "warm area" or dome teams:

Team	Possible Cold Weather Games	Cold Weather Games Scheduled	Percentage
49ers	23	8	34.8%
Cowboys	53	20	37.8
Vikings	47	19	40.4
Dolphins	53	23	43.4
Rams	29	13	44.8
Oilers	55	29	52.7
Buccaneers	39	21	53.9
Raiders	39	22	56.4

Note that the Rams had almost double the amount of cold weather games scheduled over the same period even though they both play in the NFC West, and it should be no surprise to those savvy about NFL politics to see the Raiders getting stuck in the cold the most, percentage-wise. So if you're looking for bias, there you go.

Most disgusting recent example: Too many years with zero cold weather games on the schedule to choose from.

Skinny in '04: Last year, perhaps not coincidentally in the first year of the "new regime" 49ers under Dennis Erickson, the 49ers had an unheard of four cold weather games. No other time since 1981 did they have more than two. But things look like they are getting back to normal. Coming up, there are three possibilities for cold weather games in 2004: at Jets, at Chicago, and at New England. Two of these are scheduled before November to reduce the cold weather risk for the 49ers and the third is the final game of the year -- most likely a meaningless game, as mentioned above.

The Bye-Week Bible.

Definition: The NFL puts the 49ers' bye at the most advantageous point in their schedule, such as right before the game against their toughest opponent (thus giving an extra week to get healthy/prepare).
Most disgusting recent example: 2002 -- Early crucial matchup against top division rival Rams placed after bye week.

Skinny in '04: Their bye week lands in between games at the Jets and at Chicago, two of their easiest opponents; i.e., a completely wasted bye-week. Well, okay, it's not completely wasted as it breaks up a 2-game road trip and comes after a long flight to New York (and we all know how sensitive the NFL is about making the poor 49ers fly across the country after all the whining about it that's come out of Frisco over the years).
If You Televise It, A Bandwagon Will Come.

Definition: The NFL has an agenda to feature the 49ers as their #1 West Coast team, thus the 49ers get an undue amount of nationally-televised games. The effect, of course, is more ignorant, innocent fans are indoctrinated into the Bandwagon thanks to pro-49er propaganda-laden broadcasts.
Most disgusting recent example: 2002, the most amazing example of B.S. ever perpetuated on the television-viewing public as every NFL-TV custom was broken in gifting the 49ers seven prime-time slots and more.

Skinny in '04: As it should be, the 49ers have no Monday Night Football games, but on the flip side they have two Sunday night games and an evening Saturday game. They also coincidentally play against Michael Vick to start the season, knowing that many are going to tune in to see how he does (thus a great opportunity for some Niner-smooching propaganda). Still, reading between the lines, it's clear the NFL and the networks don't think the 49ers are going to amount to much this season. A far cry from the days where it was on the verge of a network attempting to sign the 49ers exclusively to their schedule every week (like NBC and Notre Dame). Hey, don't laugh, it was probably closer to happening than we'll ever know.

Conclusion

Objectively, the 49ers' 2004 schedule ranks as above-average in terms of opponents' winning percentage and number of winning teams. Subjectively, you can't really say the NFL did anything special to really give an advantage to the 49ers. Overall, it's finally a decent schedule that should be a fair measure of the 49ers talent (read: they are gonna suck).

Too bad it's many years too late, as it would have been nice to see the "best ever" 49ers teams of recent past struggle against a neutral schedule instead of ending up with inflated, overrated win-loss records thanks to their garbage schedules. It would have saved all legit fans from hearing the nauseating Bandwagon's mouth-breathing about meaningless "10 win seasons in a row" and how "the 49ers don't rebuild, they reload".

Where'd all those people go, anyway?

One caveat: preseason schedule analyses are only worth so much since they are based on last year's performances. Especially in today's NFL where teams go from worst-to-first on a yearly basis, the 49ers' 2004 opponents may turn out to be a bunch of chumps. Or, like last year, the schedule may end up a lot more difficult than it first looked with the same predictable results -- more 49er losses.

Still, it's important to examine the yearly schedule advantages given to the 49ers because no other team is controlled more by their schedule. You can always count on the 49ers to roar like lions against the meek, crappy teams and run like cowards from the better teams. For years and years, a 49ers' season preview was as simple as counting up the ten sheep that would lay down like dogs and give the 49ers their "best ever 10 wins" and free pass to the playoffs.

This year's schedule features seven winning teams. Barring another implosion of the Rams or the Seahawks, the luck and gifts from the NFL may finally be turning against the 49ers. The only thing we know for sure is that if the schedule does end up fair, the 49ers, fans and their media will conveniently forget all those times it helped them and complain about it being unfair.

And speaking of Bandwagon whining, a final amusing note is that the Eagles and Browns have among the easiest schedules in the NFL -- where Terrell Owens and Jeff Garcia departed to, respectively -- so no doubt the Bandwagon will be having fits if Owens and Garcia perform up to their same old tricks of padding their stats against awful teams -- er, performing at a Pro Bowl level.

Rest assured, it's no coincidence this is happening with Bill Walsh nowhere to be seen and the "new regime" under owner John York getting the shaft. All in all, it promises to be a fantastic year in the NFL, and it all starts with the first legitimate 49ers schedule we've seen since the NHS was founded in the mid-'90s.

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