RiceWatch

Totals through Week 9: Saints

Here's how Rice's actual performance this season stacks up to the myths...

Myth: Rice's record number of receptions shows he is the best receiver

Facts this year:

Receptions (includes those erased by penalty): 61
Caught within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage: 27
"Cheese" percentage: 44%

Rice was forced out of his short game by the Packers and to some extent by Houston and New Orleans, and yet he is still almost catching half within 5 yards or less from the line of scrimmage. 44% is an incredible number, and if you prorate that across his career, a huge number of Rice's receptions have been of this "cheesy" variety. It doesn't take much skill to catch a 2-yard pass, and it certainly should not provide a basis to call someone "the best ever."

Myth: Rice takes a lot of hits and is tough

Facts this year:

Opportunities to be hit (i.e., times with ball-TDs): 59
Times tackled: 31
Hard hits taken: 4
Games injured: 2
Attempts over 10 yards "over the middle": 8

Rice goes out of bounds or falls to the ground to avoid being hit 53% of the time. He has taken four hard hits in this ENTIRE SEASON, and yet, he was forced to leave the Falcons game due to injury and injured his knee in the Rams game. Rice rarely goes over the middle; he went over the middle on his first attempt against the Bengals, got scared, and let the ball be intercepted, and was 1 of 3 on over the middle catches against Green Bay.

In sum, Rice tries to avoid contact, is rarely hit, and rarely ventures an "over the middle" attempt. Rice is far from tough; they don't call him Fifi for nothing.

Myth: Rice's touchdowns prove he is the greatest

Facts this year:

Total touchdowns: 6
"2-yard" Touchdowns: 1
Touchdowns from trick plays: 1
Touchdowns from blown coverage: 1
"Bogus touchdown" percentage: 50%

Of legit TDs:
TDs against zone: 1
TDs beating man: 2
Who Rice beat:

  1. Mike Scurlock, Rams, second year backup DB
  2. Craig Newsome, Packers, second year DB (TD questionable)

If we project this 50% bogus TD rate over his career, it is clear that Rice has set the record based on these cheap TDs. The TD by beating Newsome in the Packer game was Rice's most legit TD this season, although there is some question as to whether he got 2 feet in bounds.

Myth: Rice is often double-covered and makes great catches while beating DBs in man coverage

Facts this year:

Attempts to Rice: 89
Penalties on defense: 3
Attempts against zone coverage: 40
Complete against zone coverage: 31 (includes 1 pass interference)
Success rate against zones: 78%
Attempts against man coverage: 49
Complete against man coverage: 30 (includes 1 completion called back due to penalty and 1 pass interference play)
Success rate against man coverage: 61%

The bulk of Rice's success comes from the 49er offense exploiting holes in a zone. Carolina, Green Bay, Houston, and even New Orleans have somehow awoken from the stupor affecting most NFL defensive coordinators. Those 4 teams played Rice with consistent man coverage and all 4 were successful.

The unusual practice has thrown off Rice's numbers-- usually he has many more attempts against zones and picks them apart. However, it looks like the NFL is finally understanding that Rice cannot consistently beat man coverage, and the 49er system breaks down when it can't find holes in zones.

Myth: Rice is the "Best Ever"

Fact: We believe Rice is overrated. Almost half his catches are off of cheesy 2 yard patterns and much of his success is attributed to the 49er scheme, not individual talent. Yet, instead of challenging Rice with man coverage, teams continue to implement the same defensive philosophy that allows Rice to slip under the zone, catch a 2 yard pass, and compile his numbers that are the end-all, be-all for most people to call him "the best ever."