RiceWatch

(through Bengals game)

As you know, every game we detail Rice's performance in an effort to tie our observations over the years with some concrete evidence. We asserted before the season that, among other things, Rice is overrated because the bulk of his catches come within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, he rarely takes a hit (contrary to the fake image that Fifi is "tough"), and much of his success comes from the 49er system exploiting the traditional zone defense.

Note we are not saying "Rice sucks", but rather that he is overrated. Click to see the full argument as to why Rice is overrated.

Are we right? Here's the breakdown of Rice's action from the Bengals game. Note: the yardage is where Rice catches the ball in relation to the line of scrimmage:

Intercepted 10 yard in. Man coverage by Ashley Ambrose. Just a horrible pattern by Rice and good coverage. Rice slows down while Ambrose continues full speed to make the pick. The reason why Rice slowed down was clear-- Bengals' safety Bracey Walker was coming across from the other direction and would have taken Rice's head off. Perhaps it was a "business decision" for Rice to avoid the hit and give up the interception.
9 yard in then out. The in is covered, Young scrambles, and Rice breaks out. Zone. Dives to ground to avoid tackle. Announcers do pretty good job noting that the Young had an obnoxious amount of time to throw (just about 5 seconds). It doesn't take the greatest receiver ever to get open with that much time, especially against a zone.
2 yard drag. Zone blitz. Tackled.
1 yard hitch. Zone. The typical Rice catch, standing all by himself as the linebackers backpedal away into their zone. Dives forward.
Intercepted 14 yard seam. Zone. Tovar actually does what a LB should-- although playing a zone, know where the receiver is and react to the ball. Stockton remarks that they go one too many times to TE, as in disbelief that it couldn't have been attempted to Rice. Simms corrects.
15 yard comeback. Rice makes a good catch with a man all over him. Tackled.
4 yard slant. Rice pushes off his man so blatantly that the guy falls down. Tackled. McGwire says that Rice "Makes the extraordinary look ordinary." A better statement is that when it comes to Rice, announcers make the ordinary (a 4 yard slant) sound extraordinary.
-1 yard hitch. Zone. Dives forward.
Intercepted 38 yard post. Zone. Rice pushes the defender away then the ball bounces up into Orlando's arms. Stockton-- Rice makes "a spectacular effort". McGwire, "that would have made the highlight film." But now, it obviously won't make the highlight reel, because who wants to accept that Rice did something bad?
Incomplete 12 yard fade. Man. Rice is bumped within 5 yards, yet he turns and complains to the ref before the ball even hits the ground. Phil Simms is actually good, saying, "that is not a penalty."
6 yard drag. Zone/blitz. Dives to ground to avoid hit.

Rice returned to his usual game: of Rice 7 catches, 4 were less than 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. The 3 interceptions out of the 7 attempts over 5 yards were truly an anomaly. After vowing to "step it up" this year, Rice continues to limp through this season.

Rice's Yearly Totals Debunk the myth that he is "the Best Ever"

Myth: Rice's record number of receptions shows he is the best receiver

Facts this year:

Receptions: 51
Caught within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage: 23
"Cheese" percentage: 45%

Even with being forced out of his short game by the Packers, the fact is clear: a huge number of Rice's receptions over the years have been of this "cheesy" variety. It doesn't take much skill to catch a 2 yard pass, and it certainly should not provide a basis to call someone "the best ever."

Myth: Rice takes a lot of hits and is tough

Facts this year:

Times with ball (minus touchdowns): 50
Times tackled this year: 23
Hits taken: 4
Games injured: 2
Attempts over 10 yards "over the middle": 8

Rice goes out of bounds or falls to the ground to avoid being hit 54% of the time. He has taken four hits in this ENTIRE SEASON, and yet, he was forced to leave the Falcon game due to injury and injured his knee in the Ram game. Rice rarely goes over the middle; he went over the middle on his first attempt against the Bengals, got scared, and let the ball be intercepted.

In sum, Rice tries to avoid contact most of the time, is rarely hit, and rarely ventures an "over the middle" attempt. Rice is far from tough; they don't call him Fifi for nothing.

Myth: Rice's touchdowns prove he is the greatest

Facts this year:

Total touchdowns: 5
"2-yard" Touchdowns: 1
Touchdowns from trick plays: 1
"Bogus touchdown" percentage: 40%

Of legit TDs:
TDs against zone: 1
TDs beating man: 2
Who Rice beat:

Mike Scurlock, Rams, second year backup DB
Craig Newsome, Packers, second year DB (TD questionable)

If we project this 40% bogus TD rate over his career, it is clear that Rice has set the record based on these cheap TDs. The TD by beating Newsome in the Packer game was Rice's most legit TD this season, although there is some question as to whether he got 2 feet in bounds.

Myth: Rice is often double-covered and makes great catches while beating DBs one-on-one

Facts this year:

Attempts to Rice: 73
Pass Interferences: 2
Attempts against zone coverage: 38
Complete against zone coverage: 30 (includes 1 pass interference)
Success rate against zones: 79%
Attempts against man coverage: 35
Complete against man coverage: 22 (includes 1 completion called back due to penalty and 1 pass interference play)
Success rate against man coverage: 63%

The bulk of Rice's success comes from the 49er offense exploiting holes in a zone. Before, Carolina was the only team that actually dared to cover the Almighty with man coverage almost the entire game. Now add the Packers mostly man coverage, and the numbers (and the 2 49er losses) continue to show the true weakness of Rice-- the inability to consistently beat and be effective against man coverage.

Myth: Rice is the "Best Ever"

Fact: We believe Rice is overrated. Almost half his catches are off of cheesy 2 yard patterns and much of his success is attributed to the 49er scheme, not individual talent. Yet, instead of challenging Rice with man coverage, teams continue to implement the same defensive philosophy that allows Rice to slip under the zone, catch a 2 yard pass, and compile his numbers that are the end-all, be-all for most people to call him "the best ever."

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