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PROBLEM PEOPLE:Terrell Owens |
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PROBLEM PEOPLE:Terrell Owens |
Like all of the 49er Problem People, Terrell Owens is overrated. Since his early days of being dubbed "the Next Jerry" until being thrust into the stratosphere of among the best wide receivers of the NFL -- if not the best -- in the minds of many. "Owens is the best receiver in football today, a more powerful wideout than Jerry Rice ever was in a 49er uniform," gushed ESPN's Joe Theismann, which pretty much sums up the nauseating opinion of our media.
The early source of all of the hype was due to the 49ers' __ to find "the next Jerry". Eager to dump the aging Rice, the 49ers drafted J.J. Stokes in the first round
Owens is a great example of "best ever" being a creation, not a talent.
Owens is a great example of "best ever" being a creation, not a talent. Owens is not a football player in his heart. "I didn't grow up wanting to play football," he told NFL.com. He has no love of the game beyond what it can do for his fame and wallet.
This explains
9/24/00: Owens dances on the logo at midfield in Texas Stadium. During his second attempt he is obliterated by Cowboys' . Owens is fined $24,294 and is suspended for one game by the 49ers. The fine later is reduced by $8,000.
10/31/01: Three days after the 49ers lose to the Bears in overtime, Owens accuses coach Steve Mariucci of taking it easy on friend Dick Jauron, the Bears' coach.
1/13/02: The 49ers lose to Green Bay in a wild-card playoff game. Owens calls his agent from the locker room and demands to be moved from the team.
2/1/02: Owens says he has asked the 49ers to put him on the expansion draft list. The 49ers decline.
Sept. 22, 2002: When the 49ers don't try to score a touchdown in the final moments against the Redskins, Owens says Mariucci lacks a killer instinct.
10/14/02: After scoring what turns out to be the game-winning touchdown against the Seahawks in Seattle, Owens takes a Sharpie from his sock, signs the football and gives it to his financial adviser sitting in a field-side box. Owens' agent later auctioned the ball on eBay.
Now, some of these guilty individuals are fantasy football guys, and to that end, we have no problem with them rating Owens highly or recommending that Roto owners draft him first for their leagues. Barring injury Owens will certainly continue to put up gaudy numbers. But does this mean Owens is the best receiver in football?
The danger for many is the cross over of fantasy football to reality. It must be clear that just because Owens puts up good looking stats, that doesn't mean he should by default be thought of as among the most talented receivers in the NFL. But alas, many ignorant "experts" make that mistake, as they have done with basically every 49er since 1981. Fact is that it is as true now as it was then, that the 49ers' individual statistics benefit from their "system" -- namely, catching a lot of cheesy 2-yard passes -- and padding their stats against bad opponents.
Owens is no exception. Like all things Niner, he is more hype than substance.
Owens caught 93 passes, 65 of which were caught within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (70%). Think about that -- 7 out of every 10 balls he caught was within 10 yards downfield. Pathetic. J.J. Stokes was slightly better, catching "only" 67% within 10 yards downfield. Tai Streets, the Niners' supposed "deep threat", caught 79% under 10 yards downfield. Is there any wonder why we refer to the 49ers as being a cheesy 2-yard pass offense?
Compare that to the Rams' wideouts Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, at 51% and 44%, respectfully. Yes, more than half the time, the St. Louis wide receivers are attacking downfield beyond 10 yards, like wide receivers are supposed to do, a shining testament to the fact that the Rams run a legitimate, exciting, talent-based offensive system (which unfortunately also means higher risk).
In relating this to the discussion of the level of Owens' talent, in case you don't get it, the shorter the pass, the less risk, and the easier it is to complete. So when you consider the talent of Owens as a wide receiver, you have to consider the length of his attempts because -- bottom line -- if he's catching a bunch of short passes, he's not really proving anything except that he's good at catching a lot of easy passes.
For sane people, collecting a lot of junk is basically worthless, but for the Niner fans and the media, being good at catching easy passes is The Gold Standard. For years, Jerry Rice was the only wide receiver catching this sort of obscene short pass percentage, for which we of course lambasted him. And the Niner response? They ignored the dearth of quality in his receptions and asked, "Well, if it was so easy, why doesn't everyone do it?"
Fifteen years later, guess what? In a sad statement of today's NFL, we now have a boatload of other teams basing their offenses around the 2-yard dink, and other receivers are catching just as many cheesy short passes as Owens. We examined 67 receivers in the NFL that had more than 30 receptions and found that 19 had a "cheesy reception %" of at least 70%. Twenty-four more caught at least 60% of their receptions within10 yards downfield.
So almost everyone does do it now, which prompts the question, then, "Is a short pass necessarily 'cheesy?'" After all, most 49er fans and the media seem to think it is not. But if your definition of cheesy is "less risky and easier to catch than a longer pass", the answer is a resounding yes.
To reach this answer, in examining the top 67 NFL reception leaders, we also looked at another stat: receiver completion percentage. That is, the number of times the team attempted to throw to that receiver (according to Stats, Inc.) versus how many that receiver caught.
We then performed a regression comparison of the 67 receivers' short pass percentage to their completion percentage. What we found was a definite relationship: the higher percentage of short passes caught, the higher completion rate. For example, if a receiver caught 75% of passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, your typical starting NFL receiver would be expected to catch 59% of the passes directed at him. A receiver with only a 50% short pass percentage can be expected to catch at only a 54% clip. Yes, the more short passes, the more easy it is to compile gaudy reception stats. Common sense, statistically proven.
Owens, of course, is among the pack of receivers catching the most easy passes, so how do we differentiate between their talent level? Well, we found that according to Stats, Inc., the 49ers attempted 155 passes to Owens and completed 93 (60%). This is just about what you would expect from your typical NFL receiver who catches 70% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage -- his actual deviation from his expected success rate is 1.8%.
Compare that to the Rams receivers. The sure-handed Ricky Proehl was 15.6% better than expected. Isaac Bruce, 9.8% better, and Torry Holt was 7.1% better. In fact, Owens came in 28th place in terms of his expected completion percentage -- 27 receivers scored better than expected than Owens.
The take is that Owens catches pretty much what he should catch considering that so many of his passes are of the cheesy variety. If he was truly an "elite talent", one would expect him to catch much more than the expected amount. The fact that he doesn't is one piece of evidence in the overall pie proving that Owens is overrated.
Certainly, this is not a "scientific conclusion". We can already hear the whining that this analysis ignores too many factors. However, just about every ignored factor you can think of would actually work in Owens' favor. For example, it is obvious the Rams receivers benefit from Kurt Warner's accuracy in their reception success rate. But doesn't Owens have "MVP" Jeff Garcia throwing to him as well? Shouldn't Owens' score therefore be up there with the Rams receivers if he was as talented? Plus, the 49ers supposedly have the most "enlightened" system in the NFL and have been throwing 2-yard passes longer than anyone, which should also tend to make Owens' completion percentage higher. So considering those other factors that we've ignored, in our analysis, we've actually given him the benefit of the doubt -- Owens is actually overrated in our analysis here.
To sum up the point, by running his statistics versus the other receivers in the NFL, it is shown that Owens is nothing special. Lots of receivers notch lots of receptions when thrown a lot of short, easy to complete passes. Owens catches what is expected, others (specifically, 27 others) catch more than expected.
Not only does Owens fail catch more passes than expected, but he also drops more balls than expected. 16.1% of Owens' incompletions were because he dropped the ball (again, drops according to Stats, Inc.). Of the 67 receivers we examined, only 12 had a worse drop rate. And he's supposed to be "elite"?
Of course, the Whiner fans and media are screaming by now that what makes Owens truly special is how dangerous and exciting he supposedly is with the ball. Well, given that all his "danger and excitement" didn't translate into leading the league in yards per catch, they then point to his NFL-leading 16 TD catches. While the 49er fans and media drool over Owens' gaudy TD total, again, the behind-the-scenes data clears the air on Owens' TDs:
TDs against teams under .500 (10 games): 14
TDs against teams .500 or better (6 games): 2
Can you guess how many TDs Owens had in their one playoff game? Zero, of course, because Green Bay was a good team, silly. Fact is, most of Owens' TDs were the result of broken down, bad coverage, or bad tackling -- all courtesy of the bad teams that always seem to populate the Niners' schedule.
We would be remiss, of course, if we failed to add the historic NFC West sheep factor to this discussion. As all Niner-haters know, being in the NFC West has always been a huge part of the 49er Problem as these bad teams have done the lion's share of vaulting the 49ers into the realms of the overrated. With Owens it is no exception. An eye-popping 10 of his TDs were courtesy of last year's NFC West sheep -- the Panthers, Saints and Falcons -- all losing teams who decided to lay down like dogs for the Niners' benefit, as usual.
Just in case this, on its own merits, doesn't convince the Whiner fans, let's compare Owens' TD breakdown to the second leading TD scorer, Marvin Harrison:
TDs against teams under .500 (4 games): 4
TDs against teams .500 or better (12 games): 11
And how do Rod Smith's 11 TDs break down?
TDs against teams under .500 (8 games): 5
TDs against teams .500 or better (8 games): 6
We could go on, but the point should be exceedingly clear. Not everyone pads their stats against crappy teams. Some receivers, notably the #2 and #3 ranked behind Owens on the TD list last year, performed just as well or even stepped it up against the better teams.
Being "dangerous with the ball" only against bad teams doesn't prove anything, and it certainly is no basis for arguing a receiver is the most talented or exciting in the league. A receiver who is being called "the best in the NFL" should perform consistently no matter what the competition. Owens does not. He virtually disappears against the better teams or even outright chokes (see: his costly drop against the Rams at home last year). Once again, another piece added to the conclusion that Owens is overrated.
Owens did not lead in the major statistical categories of receptions, yardage, or yards per catch. In our more in-depth analysis behind his number of receptions when compared to his "cheesy attempt %", he was exposed to be nothing special. In fact, many other receivers are more successful pass catchers when catching similarly distanced attempts, and have better hands as evidenced by lower drop rates. His one leading stat, touchdowns, is exposed as a sham when noting just two scores came against winning teams. Other receivers score more when it matters more.
For years, we at the NHS railed against Jerry Rice as the most overrated player in NFL history because of his huge percentage of short catches and meaningless TDs against pathetic opponents. We even took the time to compile our own statistics using game film to back our claims with actual evidence, since stats such as length of pass attempt weren't kept back then. Thankfully, today, the stats are kept freely for anyone to dig for the truth.
You would think that the "coincidence" that Owens has become the next "best ever" wide receiver would be transparent. Owens just happens to play in San Francisco, and just happens to be putting up the same stats like former "best ever" Rice -- so what's more logical? That they are both "best ever", or that the magical coincidence reveals both receivers are more hype than substance? You would think that the Bay Area, which considers itself intellectually superior to the rest of the world, would see the obvious -- since Owens is having the same success as Rice, obviously it is not the individual talent of these players, but rather the cheesy system, weak schedule, and other factors rather than talent contributing greatly to their gaudy statistics.
You would think. They don't.
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created: September 20, 2002
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