THE OVERRATED 49ERS

We originally hoped this section would one day contain the cast of hundreds of villains better known as the 49ers; however, we've found the Newsletter to be a better forum (in the Overrated 49er of the Issue section) and we simply haven't had time to keep up the construction of this page. We still plan on building this page in the future.

Table of Contents:

Jerry Rice
Brent Jones

Why Jerry Rice is not the "best receiver ever"

You've probably heard every sportscaster casually say that Rice is the best receiver ever and move on to the next subject. Or, perhaps you were tuned in when the great announcing crew of TNT (may they rest in peace) argued that Rice was not just the best receiver ever, but should be called the best PLAYER ever.

You would think that most people would be appalled and insulted, but no. The Problem has been repeated so often now that this opinion (and poor opinion at that) has been swallowed by the public and it is now a fact in their little minds. Perhaps we shouldn't be so hard on the public; after all, there's usually a cute corresponding graphic showing Rice's "great" records, therefore "proving" he's "the best ever". But nobody stops to wonder how exactly Rice has been so successful. They always just accept it, no questions asked.

We at the NHS don't accept it. We've stopped and asked and looked at the numbers and the different eras in football and the game itself. We've come up with a list of reasons that will have you agreeing that Rice is not as great as his hype:

WHY RICE IS OVERRATED

Changes in the rules of football have catered to Rice's style

Rice must not be touched in order to be effective. Any time Rice is touched, it is called a penalty. Rice would not have survived in the old game of constant physical contact against receivers, all the way down the field. As such, he cannot be said to be the "Best Receiver Ever," because we won't ever know what the real great receivers of all-time would have done if they were as shielded from physical play. Heck, imagine Fifi trying to play without a helmet.
Rice benefits from the 49er passing system

When you send 4 or 5 receivers out against the typical, dumb NFL zone defense consisting of 4 DBs, someone must be open every play. It is just a matter of simple reads for a QB to find the right guy. Not only that, the typical defense requires zones where people have huge areas of coverage. Teams like the Packers have shown the easy solution: drop 8 people and smack the receivers off the line of scrimmage, disrupting the "system".
Rice frequently does not run "real" patterns

If you watch Rice closely, you will see he rarely runs a pattern where he has to make an actual cut. His patterns are straight lines-- he either slants, streaks, crosses, or seams. Only on occasion does he actually run an out or a post. Rarely does he run the patterns that take actual skill, such as the post-corner, the zig-out, the out-and-up (i.e., 2 and 3 step patterns). This is because he is often finding a soft spot in a zone, not beating a man covering him as popular myth would have you believe. In addition, most of these patterns are run 2 yards downfield where my Grandma could get open.
Many of Rice's touchdowns are bogus

The number that gets Whiner fans most excited is the number of touchdowns scored by Rice. The reason Rice has so many touchdowns is not because he is the greatest receiver ever; rather, it is because the 49ers choose to pass the ball to score a two-yard touchdown because they can't punch it in with a running back like almost every other team. In short, many of Rice's TDs are the product of opportunity that other great receivers throughout history have not enjoyed. Also, NFL tackling has deteriorated considerably and this point is magnified when combined with the stupid defenses played against the 49ers.

As a result, Rice has umpteen 2 yard touchdown passes which is a tribute to the number of attempts in goal-line situations, not pure skill. Plus, Rice has umpteen 2 yard catches that go for 70 yard touchdowns due to the fact that defenses expect 4 DBs to often cover the entire football field against the 49ers. The 49er system is easily able to create huge gaps of yardage for Rice simply to run through. Of course, when teams employ a defense specifically designed to stop the 49er short passing game (such as the Packers in 1997), Rice's RAC was were it should have been these last 10 years-- zero. Plus, when you ask an NFL DB to cover 60 or more square yards of turf you are relying on their tackling ability. Many NFL DBs simply cannot tackle; they only know how to hit these days.
Offensive statistics aren't worth what they used to be

This is an offensive era in football. Changes in rules and offensive philosophy over the past couple of decades means that it is more important than ever to remember that when you compare players from different eras, you must take into account the state of the game. Today, running backs, receivers, and quarterbacks are doing things never done before. For example, before 1990, only 3 players had ever caught 100 passes in a season (and Rice wasn't one of them). Since, it's been done over 20 times.

This is important since 49er fans primarily point to the stats to "prove" Rice is the best of all-time. But if you think about it, Rice gets to play in the best of times for receivers, and that benefit needs to be considered when analyzing Rice. Who knows what some of the past greats could have done in today's wide open game? A receiving yard in 1950 definitely has a different worth than a yard today.

Summary:

We are not saying that Rice sucks. Our point is that due to the reasons above, his precious statistics are inflated when compared to the numbers of other great receivers of the past, and because people continually ignore these points and call Rice "the best ever", the inescapable conclusions is that Rice is overrated. All you can say for sure is that he is a good receiver who happened to be in the right place at the right time.

Rebuttal

This rebuttal was written by David Lowe, keeper of The Jerry Rice Page

49er's or not who cares, Jerry Rice is the topic here and is the only receiver the 49'ers have ever had that has the numbers to back up his name.

Simply put, football players are judge by there preformance on the field. Jerry Rice has 21+ nfl Records, more yards, more receptions, and more tds than any other receiver in history and has accomplished this in less years than any of the receivers whos records he broke.

I still demand that if you are such the authority on Rice not being the greatest receiver of all time, and you beleive that these stats mean nothing, then you must be able to produce the name of the receiver that is the greatest of all time right? Furthermore you must have some majical way of showing how some receiver past or present who holds none of the records that Jerry Rice does is better. Admit it all receivers are at the same advantage over what you call stupid defenses yet the other receivers don't seem to produce like Rice. What gives in your argument? Why are the defenses only stupid when they play against Rice and the 49'ers? Why doesn't Irvin have the same luck? Why doesn't John Taylor have the same luck and he's been with the 49'ers just as long as Rice? You can't argue that it is because Rice is on the 49'ers since John Taylor hasn't been able to do the same and he's no real slouch of a receiver. How is it that Rice had more receiving yards this season than any other receiver in any season yet he is not the best? What is your definition of best? The receiver who can get the crap beat out of him then beat the crap out of the defense but not actually produce receptions, yards, and td's?

Redirect

The NHS responds to the rebuttal arguments...

Re: "you must be able to produce the name of the receiver that is the greatest of all time."

No, no, no! We get tons of mail reflecting this tunnel vision possessed by the 49er fans and media. We believe that no one receiver can be named the best ever. Football has spanned many decades with myriad rule changes. There is no way to anoint a conclusive "best ever", yet we consistently hear from 49er fans and the media that Rice is the best ever, when one simply cannot logically make that conclusion. The proper and only correct answer to "who is the best receiver ever?" is that there is no absolute "best ever." It all comes down to someone's opinion.

Re: relying on Rice's records.

49er fans constantly refer to Rice's records as proof that he is "the best ever." For the longest time Steve Largent held many records. Did you say he was the best ever when he held those records? If you did, you were obviously wrong, since his records were broken and, tragically, he is never even mentioned in a discussion of the great receivers of all-time anymore. Do we have to spell out the analogy to Rice?

Also remember that statistics today don't mean as much as they used to. Catching 100 passes in a season used to be unheard of, but now it is commonplace. Thus, Rice's statistics must be discounted if you want to compare them to the numbers of other great receivers.

Finally, most (if not all) of Rice's records are based on the sheer bulk of the attempts to him; he has more attempts to him than any other receiver, ergo, he has the most catches, most yards, and most touchdowns (if you throw to one guy 15 times a game and another 5 times a game, who's gonna have the better career stats, regardless of talent?) If you look at the averages, such as yards per catch or TDs per game, Rice is frequently not the record holder (for example, Don Hutson has more TDs per game, meaning that if he had the opportunity to play as many games as Rice, statistically, Hutson would have more career touchdowns).

Re: "[John Taylor] is no real slouch..."

C'mon, John Taylor is a terrific slouch!

Re: stupid defenses.

Defenses are stupid because they have not evolved for 20 years. The "West Coast Offense", like the "Run&Shoot", is a gimmick offense that requires a completely different defensive scheme, yet teams continue to try and match up against the West Coast Offense as if it was running a "Power I" set from 1979. Teams like the Packers have shown that if you make simple changes in your defensive scheme, more often than not you will stop the 49ers cold. If the NFL learns from teams like Green Bay, this discussion will be moot.

In sum, any discussion of Rice is OPINION. Unfortunately, many 49er fans don't understand and think they can prove it as FACT that Rice is "the best ever." The sad part is that the media and football commentators play a huge part in this ruse. We won't stand for this ignorance and will continue to be the forum for the alternative opinion, such as this reader's:

I couldn't agree more on the Jerry Rice comments [made by NHS]. In fact, you rarely see Jerry Rice make an acrobatic or even difficult catch. He is a high-octane type of machine that does not take to being roughed up or do anything besides run slants. You rarely see him break tackles and most importantly, make the difference in a big game. He is the type to "beat up" on the mid- to low-level teams in what is arguably the weakest division in the league.

Amen!

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Brent Jones

Of all the outlandish hype-based statements made by tunnel-visioned 49er fans, some just make you shake your head in complete wonder. Of course, we're always hearing about how Jerry Rice and Joe Montana are the "Best Ever"; statements like that are commonplace. Lately, we've begun to hear about how William Floyd is the "Best Fullback in the NFL" even though he's only played for little over a year. And out of nowhere, Merton Hanks has suddenly blossomed into the "Best Safety" in the league.

Perhaps the most galling, however, is a statement that we've been hearing for several years now: "Brent Jones is the Best Receiving Tight End in football." Of course, we wince every time we see him run a simple seam route, catch a pass, and chug down field a few more yards before being easily upended by a defensive back. Yet, 49er fans seem to think that Jones is the only one in the NFL that can do this.

The truth is, Brent Jones is nothing more than a journeyman tight end who has decent receiving skills, no speed, and mediocre blocking ability. Note how the above statement of greatness is very specific: he is the "Best Receiving Tight End" in the league. Even 49er fans know that Jones couldn't block a stationary blow-up doll if he had to. However, there is nothing that Jones does receiving-wise that sets him apart from any other tight end in the NFL. More accurately, he simply benefits from playing in a system which values the tight end more than other systems and teams.

Normally, we at the NHS don't like to use raw statistics too much when discussing our views on football and the 49ers because the average fan fails to understand the full meaning behind the statistics. (The stereotypical fan believes in the "stats don't lie" theory, a theory which is only partially true. Stats do not lie, it's the interpretations of statistics that lie.) Also, football is the ultimate team sport, and a sport which does not lend itself well to individual statistics. The actions of each player on the team directly affect the success of each individual play, and therefore the accumulation of all the statistics.

In this case, however, just to prove our point about Jones, we'll take a look at some of the top receiving tight ends from the 1995 season. As you can see, while Jones had decent stats, he certainly does not stand out among the players listed below (players sorted by total receptions):

1995 TIGHT ENDS          REC   YDS   AVG  TD
Ben Coates, NE            84   915  10.9   6
Shannon Sharpe, Den       63   756  12.0   4
Jay Novacek, Dal          62   705  11.4   5
Brent Jones, SF           60   595   9.9   3
Mark Chmura, GB           54   679  12.6   7
Ken Dilger, Ind (rookie)  42   635  15.1   4

Not only did Jones not lead in any one category, he wasn't even close. And it wasn't like he was close to the top in all categories; out of the listed players, he had the fewest yards, average per reception, and touchdowns.

Now, even though they are wrong, we can understand when 49er fans go on and on about Rice and Montana since statistics can help support a 49er fans point of view, but there is nothing here that can even remotely show that Brent Jones is the "Best Receiving Tight End in football."

Therefore, to support their argument (not that they ever try to do this), 49er fans would have to drop the statistics and find proof elsewhere. All that is left are the intangibles -- wait, what intangibles? Does he make great catches? Not at all. Rather, we saw Jones drop more passes this year than any of the above listed players. Does he get open well? Jones can usually find a nice soft spot in the zone and make himself available for a pass, but almost every tight end can do that. Not only that, Green Bay put Jones on his ass so much in the playoff game this year, we thought he'd become a permanent statue on the 3Com field: face down in the turf, limbs flailing, grass all over his facemask.

In reality, Brent Jones is nothing more than a decent tight end that cannot block well and runs with the speed of Refrigerator Perry. However, all the signs from the 49er camp indicate that Jones probably doesn't have much time left. The good news: we won't have to hear about him being the "Best Receiving Tight End" anymore. The bad news: the guy that takes his place will take over that title immediately ...

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