The West Coast Collective

Bandwagon deluded about "going deep" & the WCO

July 19, 2003 (NHS) -- Dennis Erickson beamed onto the 49ers' mother ship armed with a playbook based on the spread offense and a mentality to throw the ball downfield. An ominous chorus of robotic voices answered his arrival:

"We are Walsh. Your playbook is useless here. We will add your aggressive distinctiveness to our own. Your offense will adapt to service us. Resistance is futile."

And just like that, Erickson was assimilated into the West Coast Collective.

Actually, Bill Walsh's real quote was, "He'll adapt to the 49ers, and I think he'll coordinate what we've done and what he's done. He brings a new dimension to our offensive team."

But you get the real picture.

Dennis Erickson is an outsider to the "Walsh Family" of coaches -- you know, all those names on that glorious "Family Tree" that ESPN and NFL.com have splashed all over the Internet in the hopes of convincing us that Walsh is solely responsible for everything great in football?

But Erickson is nowhere near this tree; he's not even in the same orchard. He's never run the so-called "West Coast Offense" ("WCO") and never coached under the tutelage of the Almighty Genius or any of his famous protégés. His last quarterback at Oregon State completed just 47% of his passes yet averaged a healthy 15.7 yards per completion -- i.e., about as opposite of the WCO as you can be.

Given that the WCO's system of dink passes has become the football equivalent of Einstein's theory of relativity according to the NFL media elitists, you would think that the thought of an outsider like Erickson taking command of the WCO flagship would cause some trepidation among the Bandwagon. Instead, it's the opposite. Erickson has actually addressed a growing restlessness in the Bandwagon. Over the past months, we've heard more and more 49er fans, their media, and even 49ers themselves complain that the 49ers throw too many short passes.

Which is basically analogous to the Osbournes complaining they curse too much.

Indeed, to observers like the NHS, for the 49er Bandwagon to complain about short passes is beyond absurd, since it is a complaint about the very gimmick responsible for their success these past two decades. Yet it seems, as usual, only the NHS is cognizant of the outlandishness of what's going on. The media and all the supposed experts out there seem perfectly comfortable and in fact support the notion that all the 49ers need is a little dose of an added "deep element" to their offense that will pave the way to the 49ers' rightful spot among the NFL's elite. Erickson sparked the interest among the Bandwagon by emphasizing that he likes "getting the ball up the field" and "creating some deep threats". Walsh himself added, "We've been concerned about getting the football down the field all last season."

Of course, our first thought is Bill Walsh? Concerned they haven't been getting the football downfield? How can Walsh complain about short passes? Isn't he much more likely to be lobbying the NFL to outlaw any forward pass traveling more than two yards in accordance with his "enlightened" vision of the game of football?

No, apparently Walsh and the 49ers are actually selling that they want to bring "downfield" to the WCO ... and many dolts out there seem to be actually buying it, including our lovable sports media. The juices of many media and 49er fans are now flowing with images of Terrell Owens finally being unchained to romp down the field to untold bombs of glory. "Look for the 49ers to get more aggressive down the field in Erickson's system," NFL.com's Pete Frisco giddily penned, "That could be good news for receiver Terrell Owens, and bad news for opposing defensive coordinators."

The reality, of course, is that the WCO and "downfield" are mutually exclusive, by definition. Apples and oranges.

The WCO, or "Wuss Coast Offense", as many of our readers like to say, is based upon a definition given in the movie Fast Times At Ridgemont High: it is part wimp, part pussy. It's all about eliminating risk in the passing game in a nickel-'n'-dime approach of taking what the defense gives, realizing that under the watered-down NFL rules of today, the short pass is always given.

On the other hand, while "going downfield" doesn't necessarily mean a steady diet of long bombs, at the very least it's gotta mean throwing beyond 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, something the 49ers don't know much about in their WCO. Owens caught 78% of his passes within 10 yards downfield in 2002. This wasn't much different than 2001, when his cheesy pass percentage was 70%. That percentage hasn't changed significantly over the years, whether it be to Owens or Jerry Rice, from Jeff Garcia or Joe Montana.

So why do the 49ers, who have been successful at practicing this dink-'n'-dunk game for the past 20 years, think that they should (and could) magically mix in "going downfield" to their offense? And why is the Bandwagon buying it?

The simple answer is because they are delusional. Completely. So once again, it's time for a little NHS myth & fact analysis on the subject:

MYTH: "The 49ers' offense with which Erickson is familiar is the Walsh offense from the '80s and early '90s, the one that featured Jerry Rice and John Taylor and deep slants and crossing routes that got receivers into one-on-one coverage and created big plays." (S.F. Chronicle's Ira Miller.)

FACT: "Featured" deep slants? What've you been smoking, Ira?

Perhaps the 49ers of the bygone days created more big plays than today's boring Niners, but certainly not by "featuring" deep passes. Then, as now, the 49ers featured short passes under 10 yards most of the time, and their big plays were often runs after the catch on 2-yard slants.

This isn't just our opinion. Westcoastoffense.com, a site we hesitate to reference given that it is dedicated to kissing Bill Walsh's ass, admits: "The 49er West Coast offense relies on short passes turning into big plays. Steve Young has the patience to continue to throw the short pass if that is what the defense is giving him ... Joe Montana and Steve Young have both run the offense to perfection."

Is this to say the 49ers never threw downfield? Of course not. But the reality is that despite the Bandwagon's fond memories to the contrary, in all of the 49ers' so-called glory days, the deep pass was never an intentional focus, and certainly not a "feature". Walsh's philosophy on the deep pass is that it would be an accident by design, created in the form of a blown coverage due to the defense reacting to the avalanche of short passes.

Unfortunately, it's hard to find stats that detail the 49ers' appalling short lengths of attempts in the 1980s. The earliest study we could find was our own of Rice through 9 games in 1996. Our study determined that 40 out of Jerry's 58 receptions (69%) were caught within 10 yards downfield, and four of the longer 18 catches (22% of Rice's deep receptions) were the product of blown coverages or trick plays. This is basically the same as Owens today, and our memories of how the 49ers' played in the '80s, too.

In other words, the media "experts" like Ira Miller and the 49er Bandwagon that are firmly stuck in the mentality that in the good ol' days, Montana used to throw deep all the time to a streaking Rice, are flat-out wrong. Yes, it happened occasionally of course, but the basis of the 49ers winning was receivers catching 2-yard slants and hoping the defenders would trip over their own feet so they could run 90 yards after the catch (see: John Taylor twice in one game v. the L.A. Rams).

MYTH: Terrell Owens is Just That Good, and once free of the handcuffs of all the dink passes, he's going to be even better, and deeper passes to him will mean even bigger stats.

FACT: Owens is only productive because of the cheesy dink passes, and deeper attempts are going to hurt his numbers.

Owens has great stats the same reason Rice had great stats -- because the 49ers throw him an ungodly amount of 2-yard dink attempts. Owens is big but lacks breakaway speed, lacks discipline in his route-running, and has inconsistent hands. He is perfectly suited to catching dink passes and turning them into longer gains against the typical marshmallow opponents on their easy schedule, but that's a bad set of ingredients for a receiver to go deep with. Owens is among the NFL's leaders in drops despite catching mostly short passes -- and if he can't catch the easy ones consistently, why do people think he will magically catch the more difficult deep passes?

Even if you disagree with that take on Owens and have bought into the hype that he's the best receiver in the NFL, you still need to ask yourself, who's going to throw all these deep passes to Owens? Jeff Garcia?

Take a look at Garcia's numbers by length of attempt and you will find that in pass attempts over 30 yards last season, Garcia was 2-16 with 0 TDs and 5 INTs last season. Yes, that's right -- only two of his 328 total completions were on deep passes -- and his 5 INTs in 16 attempts over 30 yards is a hell of a lot different than his rate of 5 INTs in 512 shorter passes!

And that's who's going to be throwing deep?

Finally, who's going to block long enough to create the time for all these long bombs to develop? In the WCO, the offensive line's importance is reduced because they don't have to hold their pass blocks that long to protect a 3-step drop. Deeper patterns will be asking a 49er offensive line that is mediocre at best to block longer.

So despite the media's superficial conclusion to the contrary, there's a valid argument for anyone that actually wants to investigate the more likely truth to the matter that Owens will be less productive if the 49ers lengthen their pass attempts.

MYTH: The added element of the deep pass will improve the 49ers' offense.

FACT: Deep passes destroy the very things that make the WCO succeed.

The two biggest factors that contribute to the success of the WCO are not talent, intelligence, greatness, or whatever the Bandwagon fantasizes about their Niners. The true factors are actually consistency and the elimination of risk.

The 49ers' system is a consistent string of high percentage "long handoffs" to nickle-and-dime their way down the field. It's all based on odds of stringing together plays that all have a 65% chance of gaining 5-10 yards, instead of swinging for the fences. A system based on consistency can't absorb plays that go for zero or negative yards, which tend to happen more often when you throw deep, because it's not designed to make up big chunks of yardage in one play.

The other factor -- the thing that Chris Berman, Al Michaels and the rest strive their hardest to hide -- is that the WCO succeeds because it's a cowardly way to play football. Throwing dink passes instead of lofting the ball in the air all but eliminates risk.

This elimination of risk has been termed "enlightened" by proponents of the WCO (read: when Berman is singing the praises of "the Genius Walsh"). Here at the home of Niner-haters, we view it more as a gutless way to play the once-great game of football. Real talent, we've argued, is found on the teams that take the risk of throwing deep and still win, because any chimp can throw and catch standing 5 yards apart from each other.

As of now, the biggest risk in the 49er offense is an incompletion or maybe being forced to punt after a 3-yard completion on 3rd-and-5. When the unthinkable actually happens to the 49ers -- a turnover -- it's almost as if they can't believe it. "They certainly don't count on turning it over," said Saints LB Bryan Cox, "When they do give it up, it's like a little bit of a shock to them."

Imagine the chaos that would ensue if the 49ers' turnover total rose to that of normal teams (well, it could never rise that high due to their patented luck factor), which is exactly what throwing deep leads to. When you sum it up, the 49ers don't have the right talent to throw the ball downfield, and even if they did, the added incompletions, sacks and interceptions would gut exactly what makes the WCO work.

It seems the Bandwagon believes they can have the best of both worlds -- the dink and the deep -- and become the fiction in their minds of the 49ers of the 1980s. Maybe a perfect combination of the deep and the dink could describe the 1999 Rams, but deep passing was never an element of the 49ers, not from the '80s, early '90s, or even in their dreams.

Erickson will be assimilated

Because the dink pass is so easy, the West Coast Collective has slowly assimilated coach by coach, team by team, and the game has suffered. The average yards per completion in the NFL has dropped steadily and hit new lows. Consequently, the Bandwagon should be trying to cheese even more. Just look at the one-dimensional Raiders who got to the Super Bowl by out-dinking every other team. Yes, Oakland was embarrassed by Tampa in the Super Bowl, but that was the best defense in the NFL. Cheese works against most teams, especially the 11 easy games against sub-.500 opponents coming up for the 49ers next year.

To sum it up, all this talk of the 49ers of all teams bucking the trend and now "going deep" is simply ridiculous. Fact is the 49ers don't have the talent to do so, and whatever talent they have is not suited for handling such risks. Rest assured, though, that you'll keep hearing this "return to throwing deep" theme just to keep the spin going from a media that has never really grasped the difference between offenses. The only thing the media seems to know about NFL offenses is that if it succeeds, it must have been invented by Walsh.

Now don't take this the wrong way. By no means are we criticizing the complaint itself that the 49ers don't go deep, just the ignorance of those saying it. We want the 49ers to end their cheesy ways more than anybody. Hell, we would love Erickson to switch the 49ers over to the spread offense or any real offense. But knowing that's not gonna happen, we are salivating at the prospect at watching the overrated Garcia and Owens struggle in trying to complete a pass over 10 yards on a more regular basis.

Most likely is that once Erickson gets a taste of the fast food that is the WCO, we'll see more of the same from the Whiners this year. About 8 of 10 Niner passes will be dinks under 10 yards, then a few midrange passes, then maybe one or two deep attempts per game. Sure, a bomb or two will be completed and the Bandwagon will cry, "See! Told you so!" No doubt the pre-season will contain "proof" of Owens catching the deep TD pass. But after they break a couple of short passes for long touchdowns against one or two of the pathetic teams in the opening stretch of their schedule (we'd bet the opener against Chicago) then suffer an INT or sack when trying to throw deep, Erickson will see just how easy and risk-free the dink is, and he'll become assimilated to the "genius" of the WCO.

Resistance is futile.

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